Trend Analysis Reports
Fewer People Are Moving and That Impacts Evangelism
Research has shown for some time that people who have moved in the community recently are much more likely to be baptized as a result of Adventist evangelism-public or personal. Now, new data reveals that fewer Americans are moving each year, so this pool for conventional evangelism is being reduced.
In 1990 one in five Americans (20%) moved, but by 1999 that figure had fallen to 16% of the population. And the American Demographics Institute is predicting that the percentage will continue to fall for at least the next five years.
Why? Home ownership rates are at the highest level on record-two-thirds of Americans own their home-and it is far more difficult to sell a home, get a favorable mortgage rate and find comparable pricing in a new community than it is to move if you are renting. Another reason is the graying of America.
Fewer than 10% of people over 45 move and fewer than 5% of people over 65 move. As more and more Americans move into these higher age brackets, fewer and fewer move.
The correlation between newcomers to a community and receptivity to evangelism is also an indicator about what kind of evangelism is needed to take maximum advantage of this opportunity; a lesson the Church has been slow to learn. More than one in four (27%) of adults age 25 through 34 have moved in the last year, while only 14% of those 35 to 44 years of age did so. We need to find new approaches to young adult evangelism based on the premise that when these young adults move to a new community, they are much more likely to respond to an evangelistic contact or message.
Trend Analysis Report (2000) - Source: Forecast, August 2000